Bloomberg US Treasury Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.59%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
3.64%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
3.86%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 1998 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 189 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9145 | 3.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0639 | 9.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9324 | 126.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0010 | -1.93* |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
189 days
Other Bloomberg US Treasury Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Bond Indices