Bloomberg US Credit Aa Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
4.01%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
3.98%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
3.89%
decreased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 23, 1996 to Nov 12, 2021Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 48 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1517 | 6.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0500 | 7.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9357 | 106.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0045 | -1.48 |
| γ2 | 0.0076 | 2.01** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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