Bloomberg Asian Pacific Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged JPY Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
4.97%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
5.16%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
5.76%
increased by 0.73%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 2000 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9166 | 3.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0694 | 6.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9091 | 71.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.1047 | 1.66* |
| γ2 | -0.1663 | -1.88* |
| γ3 | 0.0904 | 1.87* |
| γ4 | -0.0488 | -1.01 |
| γ5 | 0.0906 | 1.80* |
| γ6 | -0.1289 | -3.65*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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