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V-Lab

Bloomberg Asian Pacific Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged JPY MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

6.03%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

6.30%

increased by 0.24%

1 Month

6.45%

increased by 0.39%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg Asian Pacific Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged JPY MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 30, 2000 to Aug 20, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 350% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0348
8.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7527
44.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1219
11.86***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0001
1.14
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0395
2.98***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9596
65.21***

Persistence:

0.848

Half-life:

4 days