V-Lab
Bloomberg Asian Pacific Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged JPY MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
6.03%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
6.30%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
6.45%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 2000 to Aug 20, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 350% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0348 | 8.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7527 | 44.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1219 | 11.86*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0001 | 1.14 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0395 | 2.98*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9596 | 65.21*** |
Persistence:
0.848
Half-life:
4 days
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