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Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

-0.00%

decreased by 2.73%

1 Week

0.62%

decreased by 2.11%

1 Month

1.43%

decreased by 1.30%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1999 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7500
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0088
14.28***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

1.0000
52.64***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-