Bloomberg US Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.59%
1 Week
2.61%
1 Month
2.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 347 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 26% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0241 | 11.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9707 | 424.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0063 | 5.06*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0357 | 0.29 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2976 | 0.30 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
347 days
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