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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.80%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

2.81%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

2.88%

decreased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg US Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 19% more than positive returns

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

-0.0245
-12.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1129
33.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9913
1,601.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0100
-3.92***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

80 days