Bloomberg US Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.80%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
2.81%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
2.88%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 19% more than positive returns
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0245 | -12.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1129 | 33.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9913 | 1,601.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0100 | -3.92*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
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