Bloomberg US Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.68%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
2.69%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
2.73%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 164 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0002 | 12.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0434 | 24.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9493 | 638.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0061 | 1.78* |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
164 days
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