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Bloomberg US Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

2.93%

increased by 0.14%

1 Week

2.94%

increased by 0.15%

1 Month

2.96%

increased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg US Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 1994 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 155 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~155 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0002
3.27***
αARCH0.0428
6.05***
βGARCH0.9494
161.57***
γleverage0.0068
0.50

0.996

Persistence

155d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0002
3.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0428
6.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9494
161.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0068
0.50

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

155 days