Bloomberg US Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
2.93%
increased by 0.14%
1 Week
2.94%
increased by 0.15%
1 Month
2.96%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1994 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 155 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~155 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0002 | 3.27*** |
| αARCH | 0.0428 | 6.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9494 | 161.57*** |
| γleverage | 0.0068 | 0.50 |
0.996
Persistence155d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0002 | 3.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0428 | 6.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9494 | 161.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0068 | 0.50 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
155 days
Other Bloomberg US Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Bond Indices