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V-Lab

Bloomberg US HiYld RBI(SM) Series 1 Total Return Index Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

3.34%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

3.45%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

3.87%

increased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg US HiYld RBI(SM) Series 1 Total Return Index Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 31, 2009 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 318% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0015
12.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0387
9.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8998
271.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1230
11.95***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days