Bloomberg US HiYld RBI(SM) Series 1 Total Return Index Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.34%
1 Week
3.45%
1 Month
3.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 31, 2009 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 318% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0015 | 12.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0387 | 9.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8998 | 271.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1230 | 11.95*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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