Bloomberg US HiYld RBI(SM) Series 1 Total Return Index Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.44%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
3.60%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
4.14%
increased by 0.57%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 31, 2009 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8987 | 4.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1362 | 7.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8468 | 46.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0151 | -0.51 |
| γ2 | 0.0590 | 1.42 |
| γ3 | -0.0602 | -2.90*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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