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V-Lab

Bloomberg US HiYld RBI(SM) Series 1 Total Return Index Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

3.24%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

3.34%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

3.73%

increased by 0.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg US HiYld RBI(SM) Series 1 Total Return Index Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 31, 2009 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 4968 trading days (~19.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 352% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0387
10.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8932
201.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1361
17.12***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1414
5.54***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0222
2.96***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9680
98.27***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

4968 days