Bloomberg US HiYld RBI(SM) Series 1 Total Return Index Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.57%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
3.66%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
4.00%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 31, 2009 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3525 | 7.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1029 | 63.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 7,187.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4905 | 22.97*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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