Bloomberg US Universal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
4.19%
1 Week
4.18%
1 Month
4.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1999 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 126 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.0570 | 1.79* |
| αscore | 0.0409 | 8.28*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9945 | 302.75*** |
| νDF | 9.0943 | 1.03 |
0.995
Persistence126d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.0570 | 1.79* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0409 | 8.28*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9945 | 302.75*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.0943 | 1.03 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
126 days
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