Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
4.03%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
4.05%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
4.11%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 154 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1196 | 5.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0384 | 36.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9955 | 1,392.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.7520 | 4.99*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
154 days
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