Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
4.88%
increased by 0.39%
1 Week
4.89%
increased by 0.40%
1 Month
4.93%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 2001 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 122 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~122 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0007 | 3.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.0395 | 4.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9485 | 138.85*** |
| γleverage | 0.0128 | 0.78 |
0.994
Persistence122d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0007 | 3.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0395 | 4.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9485 | 138.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0128 | 0.78 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
122 days
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