Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.94%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
3.96%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
4.06%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 137 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 31% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0007 | 14.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0392 | 18.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9497 | 553.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0120 | 2.90*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
137 days
Other Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Bond Indices