Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
4.21%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
4.22%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
4.24%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 1998 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 47% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0011 | 17.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0508 | 17.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9235 | 329.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0236 | 4.07*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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