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Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

4.21%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

4.22%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

4.24%

decreased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 31, 1998 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 47% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0011
17.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0508
17.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9235
329.10***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0236
4.07***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days