Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
4.68%
increased by 0.26%
1 Week
4.67%
increased by 0.25%
1 Month
4.64%
increased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 1998 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0011 | 4.56*** |
| αARCH | 0.0509 | 4.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9206 | 83.65*** |
| γleverage | 0.0271 | 1.16 |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0011 | 4.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0509 | 4.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9206 | 83.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0271 | 1.16 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
Other Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Bond Indices