Bloomberg US MBS Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, May 22nd, 2026
1 Day
5.95%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
5.96%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
5.99%
decreased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 01:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0002 | 15.08 | |
| 0.0446 | 15.90 | |
| 0.9310 | 508.17 | |
| 0.0489 | 9.93 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025
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