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V-Lab

Bloomberg US MBS Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, May 22nd, 2026

1 Day

5.95%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

5.96%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Month

5.99%

decreased by 0.16%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 01:56 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg US MBS Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time
paramt-stat
ω0.000215.08
α0.044615.90
β0.9310508.17
γ0.04899.93
Estimation Period:
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025