ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
9.20%
1 Week
9.27%
1 Month
9.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1997 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 81% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0026 | 6.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.1217 | 7.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8289 | 74.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.0990 | 3.11*** |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0026 | 6.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1217 | 7.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8289 | 74.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0990 | 3.11*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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