V-Lab
ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
3.35%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
3.54%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
4.09%
increased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 102% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1364 | 33.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7358 | 109.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1395 | 23.11*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0011 | 7.48*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0583 | 6.54*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9360 | 91.92*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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