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V-Lab

ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

3.35%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Week

3.54%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

4.09%

increased by 0.48%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 102% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1364
33.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7358
109.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1395
23.11***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0011
7.48***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0583
6.54***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9360
91.92***

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days