Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, May 22nd, 2026
1 Day
-0.00%
decreased by 7.14%
1 Week
0.69%
decreased by 6.45%
1 Month
1.44%
decreased by 5.70%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 01:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | ||
| 0.7500 | 7,499,900.00 | |
| 0.0000 | 100.00 | |
| 0.5000 | 5,000,000.00 | |
| 0.0057 | 3.37 | |
| 1.0000 | 59.96 | |
| 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Estimation Period:
Feb 28, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025
Feb 28, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025
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