V-Lab
Bloomberg EM Govt Inflation-Linked All Maturities Bond Index TR Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
8.77%
increased by 0.05%
1 Week
8.98%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
9.57%
increased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Aug 20, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0279 | 4.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7968 | 112.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1191 | 13.06*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1062 | 0.44 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4702 | 0.41 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3673 | 0.24 |
Persistence:
0.884
Half-life:
6 days
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