V-Lab
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
4.09%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
4.10%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
4.13%
increased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 201% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0167 | 8.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9136 | 227.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0335 | 14.54*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0111 | 1.51 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8897 | 2.43** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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