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V-Lab

ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

4.09%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

4.10%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

4.13%

increased by 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 201% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

91
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0167
8.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9136
227.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0335
14.54***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0111
1.51
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8897
2.43**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days