ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4.86%
increased by 0.59%
1 Week
4.86%
increased by 0.59%
1 Month
4.84%
increased by 0.57%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:30 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 68 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7375 | 8.26*** |
| αARCH | 0.0451 | 7.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9448 | 139.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0031 | -2.52** |
| γ2 | 0.0038 | 2.35** |
0.990
Persistence68d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7375 | 8.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0451 | 7.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9448 | 139.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0031 | -2.52** |
| γ2 | 0.0038 | 2.35** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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