Bloomberg EM Govt Inflation-Linked All Maturities Bond Index TR Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
9.80%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
10.14%
increased by 0.14%
1 Month
11.22%
increased by 1.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8981 | 7.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1044 | 6.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8708 | 52.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0009 | -1.49 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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