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Bloomberg EM Govt Inflation-Linked All Maturities Bond Index TR Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

13.66%

decreased by 0.76%

1 Week

13.70%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Month

13.83%

decreased by 0.59%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg EM Govt Inflation-Linked All Maturities Bond Index TR Unhedged USD S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 3, 2006 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9532
8.05***
αARCH0.1040
7.10***
βGARCH0.8714
55.64***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0005
-1.01

0.975

Persistence

28d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9532
8.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1040
7.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8714
55.64***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0005
-1.01

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days