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Bloomberg EM Govt Inflation-Linked All Maturities Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

10.75%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Week

10.84%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Month

11.16%

decreased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg EM Govt Inflation-Linked All Maturities Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 3, 2006 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 36-day half-lifev = 7.58 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.6652
2.02**
αscore0.0774
5.98***
βpersistence0.9807
100.97***
νDF7.5829
0.98

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.6652
2.02**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0774
5.98***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9807
100.97***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5829
0.98

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days