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V-Lab

Bloomberg EM Govt Inflation-Linked All Maturities Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

8.04%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

8.29%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

9.11%

increased by 0.93%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg EM Govt Inflation-Linked All Maturities Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 3, 2006 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6937
7.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0772
23.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9813
400.86***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.6792
3.77***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

37 days