Bloomberg EM Govt Inflation-Linked All Maturities Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
9.53%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
9.69%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
10.24%
increased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6937 | 7.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0772 | 23.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9813 | 400.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.6792 | 3.77*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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