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Bloomberg US Long Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

9.97%

increased by 0.67%

1 Week

9.99%

increased by 0.69%

1 Month

10.05%

increased by 0.75%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg US Long Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 1994 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 183 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~183 daysv = 10.49 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.5694
1.84*
αscore0.0357
9.97***
βpersistence0.9962
418.58***
νDF10.4910
0.92

0.996

Persistence

183d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.5694
1.84*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0357
9.97***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9962
418.58***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.4910
0.92

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

183 days