Bloomberg US Long Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
9.97%
1 Week
9.99%
1 Month
10.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1994 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 183 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.5694 | 1.84* |
| αscore | 0.0357 | 9.97*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9962 | 418.58*** |
| νDF | 10.4910 | 0.92 |
0.996
Persistence183d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.5694 | 1.84* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0357 | 9.97*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9962 | 418.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.4910 | 0.92 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
183 days
Other Bloomberg US Long Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Bond Indices