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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Long Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

9.58%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

9.71%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

10.19%

increased by 0.48%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg US Long Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0202
6.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0390
7.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9520
154.59***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0055
2.90***
γ2-0.0078
-3.26***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

77 days