Bloomberg US Long Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
9.58%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
9.71%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
10.19%
increased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0202 | 6.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0390 | 7.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9520 | 154.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0055 | 2.90*** |
| γ2 | -0.0078 | -3.26*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
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