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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Aggregate: Government-Related Total Return Index Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

3.47%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

3.50%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

3.61%

increased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg US Aggregate: Government-Related Total Return Index Unhedged USD S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1993 to Nov 12, 2021

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2187
11.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0329
7.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9589
176.15***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0004
2.45**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

85 days