Bloomberg US Aggregate: Government-Related Total Return Index Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.47%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
3.50%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
3.61%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1993 to Nov 12, 2021Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2187 | 11.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0329 | 7.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9589 | 176.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 2.45** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
85 days
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