ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
4.29%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
4.30%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
4.31%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 02:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 127 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1668 | 8.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0365 | 7.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9581 | 188.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 1.48 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
127 days
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