Skip to main content
V-Lab

ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

4.29%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

4.30%

decreased by 0.00%

1 Month

4.31%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 02:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 127 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1668
8.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0365
7.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9581
188.52***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0002
1.48

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

127 days