ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4.43%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
4.44%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
4.47%
increased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 119 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 38% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 18.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0309 | 15.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9573 | 741.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0119 | 3.40*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
119 days
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