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Bloomberg US Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

3.81%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

3.82%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

3.88%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg US Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0006
17.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0370
17.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9550
682.17***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0017
0.51

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

97 days