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V-Lab

Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Total Return Index Value Hedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

3.14%

increased by 0.38%

1 Week

3.13%

increased by 0.37%

1 Month

3.11%

increased by 0.35%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Total Return Index Value Hedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 31, 2000 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0005
4.77***
αARCH0.0624
4.03***
βGARCH0.9232
90.06***
γleverage0.0000
0.00

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0005
4.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0624
4.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9232
90.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days