Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Total Return Index Value Hedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.56%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
2.57%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
2.60%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 2000 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0005 | 18.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0636 | 16.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9232 | 356.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0017 | -0.28 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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