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V-Lab

Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Total Return Index Value Hedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.56%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

2.57%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

2.60%

decreased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Total Return Index Value Hedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 31, 2000 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0005
18.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0636
16.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9232
356.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0017
-0.28

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days