Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Total Return Index Value Hedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
3.14%
increased by 0.38%
1 Week
3.13%
increased by 0.37%
1 Month
3.11%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 2000 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0005 | 4.77*** |
| αARCH | 0.0624 | 4.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9232 | 90.06*** |
| γleverage | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0005 | 4.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0624 | 4.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9232 | 90.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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