Bloomberg US Treasury 20+ Yr Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
8.91%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
8.96%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
9.15%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 150 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 47% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0032 | 10.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0450 | 15.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9576 | 776.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0144 | -3.75*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
150 days
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