Bloomberg US Treasury 20+ Yr Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
11.31%
increased by 0.77%
1 Week
11.35%
increased by 0.81%
1 Month
11.53%
increased by 0.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1994 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~99 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8476 | 7.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.0401 | 7.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9529 | 173.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -1.43 |
0.993
Persistence99d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8476 | 7.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0401 | 7.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9529 | 173.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -1.43 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
99 days
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