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Bloomberg US Treasury 20+ Yr Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

11.31%

increased by 0.77%

1 Week

11.35%

increased by 0.81%

1 Month

11.53%

increased by 0.99%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg US Treasury 20+ Yr Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 1994 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~99 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8476
7.43***
αARCH0.0401
7.85***
βGARCH0.9529
173.67***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0004
-1.43

0.993

Persistence

99d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8476
7.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0401
7.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9529
173.67***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0004
-1.43

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

99 days