Bloomberg US Treasury 20+ Yr Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
9.59%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
9.69%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
10.07%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8111 | 7.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0409 | 7.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9516 | 165.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0005 | -1.74* |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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