Skip to main content
V-Lab

Bloomberg Global Treasury Total Return Index Value Hedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.62%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

2.62%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

2.63%

decreased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg Global Treasury Total Return Index Value Hedged USD S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 1997 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0480
8.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0434
7.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9490
148.64***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.33

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

92 days