Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Bloomberg Global Treasury Total Return Index Value Hedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

2.96%

increased by 0.31%

1 Week

2.96%

increased by 0.31%

1 Month

2.96%

increased by 0.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg Global Treasury Total Return Index Value Hedged USD S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 1997 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~73 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1745
7.57***
αARCH0.0443
7.85***
βGARCH0.9461
141.22***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0033
1.63
γ2-0.0041
-1.60

0.990

Persistence

73d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1745
7.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0443
7.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9461
141.22***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0033
1.63
γ2-0.0041
-1.60

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

73 days