Bloomberg Global Treasury Total Return Index Value Hedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
2.96%
increased by 0.31%
1 Week
2.96%
increased by 0.31%
1 Month
2.96%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 1997 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~73 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1745 | 7.57*** |
| αARCH | 0.0443 | 7.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9461 | 141.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0033 | 1.63 |
| γ2 | -0.0041 | -1.60 |
0.990
Persistence73d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1745 | 7.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0443 | 7.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9461 | 141.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0033 | 1.63 |
| γ2 | -0.0041 | -1.60 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
73 days
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