Bloomberg Global Treasury Total Return Index Value Hedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.62%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
2.62%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
2.63%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 1997 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0480 | 8.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0434 | 7.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9490 | 148.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.33 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
92 days
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