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V-Lab

Bloomberg Global Treasury Total Return Index Value Hedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.60%

increased by 0.22%

1 Week

74,495.09%

increased by 74,492.71%

1 Month

606,530,164,130,358,800,000,000.00%

increased by 606,530,164,130,358,800,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of Bloomberg Global Treasury Total Return Index Value Hedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 1997 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

1.0000
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0071
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0141
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2825
15.99***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9717
16.89***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-