V-Lab
Bloomberg US Treasury Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
3.27%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
3.26%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
3.30%
decreased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 1998 to Aug 20, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 67% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0551 | 13.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8169 | 47.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0370 | 7.35*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0005 | 1.89* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0782 | 2.45** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9194 | 27.81*** |
Persistence:
0.891
Half-life:
6 days
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