Bloomberg US Treasury Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.42%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
3.45%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
3.57%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 1998 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 966 trading days (~3.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 21% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 12.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0569 | 22.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9365 | 577.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0118 | 2.46** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
966 days
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