Bloomberg US Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
4.23%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
4.26%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
4.35%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 43% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0012 | 18.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0356 | 19.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9463 | 551.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0154 | 4.09*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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