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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

4.23%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

4.26%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

4.35%

increased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg US Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 43% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0012
18.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0356
19.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9463
551.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0154
4.09***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days