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Bloomberg Global High-Yield Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

4.66%

increased by 0.02%

1 Week

4.71%

increased by 0.07%

1 Month

4.89%

increased by 0.25%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg Global High-Yield Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1999 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 108% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~93 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 108% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0016
7.20***
αARCH0.0848
6.55***
βGARCH0.8621
76.55***
γleverage0.0914
3.24***

0.993

Persistence

93d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0016
7.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0848
6.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8621
76.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0914
3.24***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

93 days