Bloomberg Global High-Yield Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.52%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
2.75%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
3.14%
increased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1999 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 126% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1243 | 25.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6423 | 51.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1569 | 20.15*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0008 | 4.53*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0768 | 6.17*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9157 | 64.20*** |
Persistence:
0.845
Half-life:
4 days
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