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Bloomberg Global High-Yield Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.52%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

2.75%

increased by 0.09%

1 Month

3.14%

increased by 0.48%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of Bloomberg Global High-Yield Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1999 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 126% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1243
25.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6423
51.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1569
20.15***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0008
4.53***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0768
6.17***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9157
64.20***

Persistence:

0.845

Half-life:

4 days