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Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Government Bond Index TR Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

3.93%

decreased by 4.17%

1 Week

56.82%

increased by 48.72%

1 Month

14,347,274.31%

increased by 14,347,266.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Government Bond Index TR Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 14, 2011 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7288
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0212
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3024
7.65***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9717
8.34***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-