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V-Lab

Bloomberg Sterling Gilt Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged GBP MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

4.32%

increased by 1.07%

1 Week

21.46%

increased by 18.21%

1 Month

43,405.00%

increased by 43,401.75%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of Bloomberg Sterling Gilt Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged GBP MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 1, 2003 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.9140
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0337
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1045
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0613
9.65***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7046
14.30***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days