Bloomberg Sterling Gilt Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged GBP GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
6.17%
increased by 0.19%
1 Week
6.19%
increased by 0.21%
1 Month
6.28%
increased by 0.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 1, 2003 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 139 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~139 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0013 | 3.46*** |
| αARCH | 0.0493 | 4.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9430 | 115.34*** |
| γleverage | 0.0055 | 0.24 |
0.995
Persistence139d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0013 | 3.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0493 | 4.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9430 | 115.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0055 | 0.24 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
139 days
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