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V-Lab

Bloomberg Sterling Gilt Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged GBP GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

6.44%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

6.45%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

6.52%

decreased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg Sterling Gilt Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged GBP GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 1, 2003 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 186 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0011
12.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0462
16.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9474
470.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0054
0.93

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

186 days