Bloomberg EM Local Currency Government Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.97%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
4.06%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
4.40%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 16, 2008 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 88% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0020 | 16.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0486 | 16.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9216 | 387.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0430 | 7.86*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
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