Bloomberg EM Local Currency Government Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.88%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
3.95%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
4.23%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 16, 2008 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 172 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3407 | 8.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0686 | 49.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9960 | 1,893.47*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.8799 | 11.33*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
172 days
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