Bloomberg EM Local Currency Government Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
3.52%
1 Week
3.59%
1 Month
3.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 16, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 276 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.4064 | 2.10** |
| αscore | 0.0693 | 13.92*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9975 | 746.63*** |
| νDF | 6.6879 | 3.54*** |
0.997
Persistence276d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.4064 | 2.10** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0693 | 13.92*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9975 | 746.63*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.6879 | 3.54*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
276 days
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