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Bloomberg EM Local Currency Government Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

3.88%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

3.95%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

4.23%

increased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of Bloomberg EM Local Currency Government Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 16, 2008 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 172 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3407
8.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0686
49.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9960
1,893.47***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.8799
11.33***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

172 days