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Bloomberg EM Local Currency Government Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

3.52%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

3.59%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

3.83%

increased by 0.27%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg EM Local Currency Government Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 16, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 276 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~276 daysv = 6.69 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.4064
2.10**
αscore0.0693
13.92***
βpersistence0.9975
746.63***
νDF6.6879
3.54***

0.997

Persistence

276d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.4064
2.10**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0693
13.92***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9975
746.63***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.6879
3.54***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

276 days