Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate Total Return Index Hedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.19%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
3.20%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
3.23%
decreased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 103 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 11.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0575 | 10.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0435 | 31.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9933 | 1,445.87*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 11.1531 | 3.44*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
103 days
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