Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Bloomberg Short Treasury Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

0.29%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

0.29%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

0.29%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg Short Treasury Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 17, 2019 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 7.26 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.0003
1.18
αscore0.0903
10.60***
βpersistence0.9990
1,061.64***
νDF7.2555
2.69***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.0003
1.18
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0903
10.60***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9990
1,061.64***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2555
2.69***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days