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Bloomberg Short Treasury Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

-0.00%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Week

0.00%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Month

0.00%

decreased by 0.34%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of Bloomberg Short Treasury Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 17, 2019 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

1.0000
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0600
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1200
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7599
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-