V-Lab
Bloomberg Short Treasury Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
0.27%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
0.31%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
0.38%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 2019 to Aug 20, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0322 | 4.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6355 | 20.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2190 | 8.07*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 2.00** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 4.44*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.777
Half-life:
3 days
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