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V-Lab

Bloomberg Short Treasury Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

0.27%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

0.31%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

0.38%

increased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg Short Treasury Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 17, 2019 to Aug 20, 2026
Stationarity Enforced
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0322
4.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6355
20.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2190
8.07***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
2.00**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

1.0000
4.44***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.777

Half-life:

3 days