Bloomberg Short Treasury Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
0.36%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
0.38%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
0.40%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 2019 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1777 | 2.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1575 | 2.35** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6469 | 7.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.5824 | -0.36 |
| γ2 | 1.1985 | 0.56 |
| γ3 | 2.7045 | 2.57** |
| γ4 | -5.6476 | -4.19*** |
| γ5 | 2.4780 | 1.75* |
| γ6 | -0.8332 | -0.81 |
| γ7 | 0.9891 | 1.68* |
Persistence:
0.804
Half-life:
3 days
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