Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Bloomberg Short Treasury Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

0.27%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

0.27%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

0.28%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg Short Treasury Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 17, 2019 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1935
4.49***
αARCH0.1197
2.07**
βGARCH0.6991
8.89***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.5280
-1.11
γ22.9654
4.22***
γ3-3.6920
-6.81***
γ41.0672
2.10**
γ50.0521
0.14
γ60.3196
1.52

0.819

Persistence

3d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1935
4.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1197
2.07**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6991
8.89***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.5280
-1.11
γ22.9654
4.22***
γ3-3.6920
-6.81***
γ41.0672
2.10**
γ50.0521
0.14
γ60.3196
1.52

Persistence:

0.819

Half-life:

3 days