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V-Lab

Bloomberg Short Treasury Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

0.36%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

0.38%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

0.40%

increased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg Short Treasury Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 17, 2019 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1777
2.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1575
2.35**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6469
7.05***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.5824
-0.36
γ21.1985
0.56
γ32.7045
2.57**
γ4-5.6476
-4.19***
γ52.4780
1.75*
γ6-0.8332
-0.81
γ70.9891
1.68*

Persistence:

0.804

Half-life:

3 days